Upgrade ladders: the only strategy that survives variance
Chance is 92% divided by your multiplier. Here is how to use that instead of fighting it.
The formula
Your win chance is min(95%, 92% / multiplier). A 2x pays 2x with about 46% odds. A 10x pays 10x with about 9.2% odds. The house edge lives in that 92% instead of 100%.
A losing attempt still refunds part of your item value as credit, which softens the tail but does not change the maths.
Small steps, repeated
Going 1.5x several times keeps more of your bankroll alive than one 15x moonshot. Variance punishes big multipliers exponentially: one 15x miss erases many small wins, and the odds of a 15x hit are not high enough to compensate.
If you do want a moonshot, do it with a cheap item you were going to sell anyway. Do not do it with the best item in your inventory.
Knowing when to stop
Set a target before you start — a specific skin, not a number. When you hit it, stop. Chasing a target you already passed is how a profit becomes a story about how you almost made it.